2023 Prediction Results

Evaluating my 2023 predictions with insights and commentary on each. Let's see how they turned out.

Tech & Programming:

[✅] ‘In 2023, creators, builders and engineers that successfully integrate AI into their work flows create 10-100x value.’

- Trending toward significant productivity gains with AI, but full realization expected in 2024. Most of us are probably at the 1.5x-5x level with some of us at the 10x level.

[✅] ‘A massive gap develops between Senior engineers who use AI technology and those who don’t.’

- Along the same lines of prediction #1, senior engineers embracing generative AI are solving bigger problems faster, and smaller problems in no time. Knowing what you want and how it looks is the key to being able to prompt LLMs (or anyone) exactly the right way. Thumbs up for this prediction. In 2024 this will become even more apparent and the gap between Sr and Jr will widen.

[❌] ‘Web Engineers return to simplicity. HTMX becomes the fastest growing web tech.’

- I was wrong here. Although there’s been a trend back toward simplicity, the trend has been toward ‘letting Next.js and vercel’ solve all my problems.

[✅] ‘Rust continues to pop off and essentially becomes the new, modern day c++.’

- Rust's rise in popularity continues, though not overtaking C++.

[❌] ‘Svelete becomes the new react, except it’s actually good.’

- React remains the most used front-end framework; Svelte did not overtake it.

[✅] ‘Serverless architecture will continue to replace traditional back-ends.’

- Serverless adoption increased, recognized for efficiency.

Big Tech:

[✅] ‘Big tech uses recession to cut off underperforming employees. Great talent still hired.’

- Correct, talent with AI skills highly valued in 2023's tech landscape.

[✅] ‘Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft remain completely dominant.’

- Major tech firms maintained dominance; OpenAI also emerged as a key player.

[✅] ‘TikTok makes Gen Z the most information diverse, self-aware, open-minded generation that has ever existed with the caveat that they have 0 dopamine to act on it because they can’t stop scrolling.’

- Gen Z's information diversity increased, though with concerns over dopamine depletion.

[✅] ‘TikTok does not get banned, it gets stronger, and more addictive.’

- TikTok's influence and user engagement continued to grow.

AI:

[✅] ‘Gap between creators using AI and those who don’t. AI users more effective.’

- AI integration in creative workflows led to increased effectiveness.

[✅] ‘Generative art is here to stay. Artists utilize AI for enhanced creativity.’

- Artists increasingly adopted AI for generative art.

[✅] ‘The creator economy turns into the narrator economy with tools like ChatGPT.’

- Shift towards narration-driven creation observed, driven by AI tools.

[✅] ‘More lawsuits against AI technology. OpenAI at the center.’

[✅] ‘Google releases a ChatGPT competitor.’

- Nailed it. Hello Gemini. It is absolutely insane how much ChatGPT has eaten google search alive. Although google made it PRETTY EASY with the 5 paid ad links instead of the result it knows we’re looking for.

Geopolitical:

[❌] ‘Ukraine-Russia conflict ends with 85% odds on peaceful resolution.’

- The conflict has not ended.

[✅] ‘US-China tensions loom but nothing significant develops.’

- Tensions persisted without major developments.

[❌] ‘Deglobalization takes center stage.’

- Deglobalization trends present but not as prominent as expected.

Stock Market:

[✅] ‘Downward market until mid-summer. S&P ends between 4000-4800.’

- Did not dip low, but basically ended at 4783.36 at time of writing (12/28/2023 post market).

[❌] ‘Retail investors get heavy into AI-based Algo trading.’

- Impact of retail investors on AI-based Algo trading remains unclear.

Crypto Market:

[✅] ‘Correlation with stock market continues. Crypto trades sideways, then upward.’

- Correct for the most part. Correlation diverged a bit when AI took NVDA and MSFT to the moon.

[❌] ‘Crypto has another long winter and trades sideways, downward and then upward.’

- Definitely not a crypto winter. It traded sideways upward all year.

[❌] ‘Ethereum contends for the top spot in crypto.’

- Ethereum did not challenge Bitcoin's top position as anticipated.

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